Thursday morning NASA released some data. Bill Cooke interpreted it, and Marc Fries (pronounced ‘freeze’) applied his darkflight model on it. But there are some problems, the flight path does not corroborate with ground truth. There are several witnesses south of Lake Tawakani that see the fireball pass SOUTH of them.
On the flip side, the sonic boom witnesses described it as ‘faint’. So on Thursday, we decided to withdraw from the field to go back to Austin and try to sort out facts with models. Something does not compute and we want to know why. I predict based on the shallow angle and lessons learned in Wisconsin by fellow hunters, that the strewnfield will be very long and very low density. Perhaps 15 hours of walking per fragment found. At this point, it will be the public that finds the fragments. I also believe that the trajectory solution should be shifted over 50-100 km east.